See ahead
And then what? Who else does it touch?
Try it
Ring 1 of 3 is lit.
Move to a new city for a job
Not thought about yet
You, health, work, faith and future you
3 of 8 areas touched so far.
Ten minutes, ten months, ten years
How will you feel about moving in 10 minutes, in 10 months, in 10 years? These are a guess for the example. Move them to yours.
Steady: it feels about the same at every distance.
A pre-mortem
It is a year from now. You moved for the job, and it went badly. What happened?
What just happened
You kept asking “and then what?” Each lit ring is one more step out from the choice. The first ring is what happens right away. The rings past it are what those things set off. Looking past the first ring has a name: second-order thinking.
Each slice of the map is one area of life: you, family, health, time, work, money, faith and the future you. Light only spreads into a slice once something there is named, so a dark slice is an area nobody has asked about yet. When you add your own, its slice lights up too. Every example leaves two slices dark on purpose. Those are the ones to ask about next.
A second example: saying yes to coaching
Say you agree to coach your child’s team. Right away, your Saturdays fill up and your child is glad. And then what? The chores slide to Sunday, and you get to know the other parents. And then? A tired Monday, or a friendship that lasts for years.
Each “and then what?” is one ring further out. Those answers touched time, family and you. Money, work and health are still dark, so they are the next questions: does it cost anything, does it clash with work, and will you still get your own exercise?
We guess short
Seeing ahead also means guessing how long things will take, and people tend to guess short. Psychologists call this the planning fallacy: we underestimate how long a task will take, even when similar tasks took longer before (Roger Buehler, SPSP).
In one study, students finishing an honours thesis were asked when they would hand it in, and also for a worst case, “if everything went as poorly as it possibly could.” Here are their averages. Drag to where you think they really finished.
In a later study in the same paper, the bias went away when people were asked to connect their guess to how long similar tasks had taken them before. That is a cheap habit to keep: before you guess, ask how long the last one took.
Not everyone thinks hopeful guessing explains it all. Bent Flyvbjerg, who studies big building projects, points out that most of this evidence comes from students in lab studies, and that on big projects some estimates are kept low on purpose, to win the funding (Project Management Journal, 2021). Both can be true at once.
Imagine it already went wrong
The pre-mortem comes from the psychologist Gary Klein: before you start, imagine the plan has already failed, then write down why (Harvard Business Review, 2007). Daniel Kahneman explains it in the first video below. Suzy Welch’s 10/10/10 does the same for feelings: it gives the you of ten years from now a say.
Watch: the self who lives it and the self who remembers it
The you of ten years from now will judge this choice by how you remember it, not by how each day felt. Daniel Kahneman’s talk is about the gap between the two.
Go to the ant
Proverbs teaches the same habit in a picture. The ant works in summer for a winter it cannot see yet:
Go to the ant, you sluggard. Consider her ways, and be wise; which having no chief, overseer, or ruler, provides her bread in the summer, and gathers her food in the harvest.
Proverbs 6:6-8In context. A lesson for the lazy from the ant, which gathers its food in summer with no one telling it to.
The verses under What Scripture says put it plainly: the prudent see danger coming, and haste costs more than it saves.
Where you’ll meet this
| The choice | What you see first | And then what? Easy to miss |
|---|---|---|
| Moving to a new city | Better pay, a bigger place | A new doctor and a new church to find, and who checks on your parents now |
| A big purchase | The monthly payment | Insurance, upkeep, and what you stop saving while you pay it off |
| A hard conversation | How they will take it today | Where things stand between you a year from now |
| Taking on a second job | More money each month | Sleep, evenings at home, and how long you can keep it up |
| A new puppy | Walks and company | Who walks it at six in the morning, vet bills, and who keeps it when you travel |
| A vow made in haste (Proverbs 20:25) | Relief at saying yes | What it will cost to keep it, and who else it ties you to |
What Scripture says
Your word is a lamp to my feet, and a light for my path.
Psalm 119:105In context. A psalm in praise of God’s word: Scripture is the lamp for the next step. The light is God’s word, not a method for predicting the future.
A prudent man sees danger, and hides himself; but the simple pass on, and suffer for it.
Proverbs 22:3In context. The prudent person sees trouble coming and takes cover; the simple walk straight on and pay for it.
A simple man believes everything, but the prudent man carefully considers his ways.
Proverbs 14:15In context. The simple believe everything they are told; the prudent think about where their steps are going.
The plans of the diligent surely lead to profit; and everyone who is hasty surely rushes to poverty.
Proverbs 21:5In context. The careful plans of a hard worker lead to plenty; hasty shortcuts lead to want.
It is a snare to a man to make a rash dedication, then later to consider his vows.
Proverbs 20:25In context. A warning about vowing something to God on impulse and only afterward weighing what you promised.
Watch
Use it on your choice
Bring your own choice. Walk me through it takes you through 10/10/10 and a pre-mortem on it, and puts your answers on a card you keep.